Tab · Ground Truth & Calibration
Ground Truth & Calibration
METIS validators score miner predictions against short-term and long-term ground truth. This calibration layer converts prediction performance into reputation, consensus weight, and institutional confidence.
Epoch
1
0 log records
Predicted vs Realized
n = 0 realized
Diagonal = perfect calibration. Distance from the diagonal is the prediction error scored by validators.
Miner Accuracy Over Time
Last 12 epochs
Validator Agreement
1 − dispersion of validator scores
Calibration Records
Latest 0 realized predictions
| Miner | Task | Predicted | Realized | Error | Conf. | Validator | Weight | Finality |
|---|
Ground Truth Windows
White paper §5.3 — short-term and long-term validation
Short-Term Validation
- ▸Orbit prediction accuracy (TLE residuals, propagation drift)
- ▸TLE drift between successive epochs
- ▸Maneuver occurrence vs predicted maneuver_probability
- ▸Environmental forecast (Kp, flux) vs realized space-weather
Long-Term Validation
- ▸Loan performance (PD/LGD vs realized impairments)
- ▸Asset impairment & residual SASV at 24–48mo
- ▸Insurance trigger accuracy (predicted vs activated)
- ▸Recovery outcomes for de-orbited / failed assets